October 30, 2015

CIMB Status Update

So I made some half-decent picks and posted it but I guess I didn't fill you in on all the picks I made throughout this tournament. Just to show you what I've got so far through Day 2, check out this picture of my DraftKings account so far (took it with a phone to show you this is all the lineups I've set to play and no more than that.

As you can see, I managed to pick Justin Thomas who currently leads the tournament (although I'm sorry for not letting you in on him earlier) as well as Spencer Levin. The clear duds of my picks were Jerry Kelly and John Peterson although I did warn he was a crappy pick in the first place. With the whole field playing into the weekend, there are going to be a lot of lead changes so keep watching and for sure stay tuned as anything could happen.

October 28, 2015

Top Tier Player Picks for CIMB Classic

After the first couple of weeks of action its very easy to start picking players that have found success as of recent and roll with them. I believe this definitely holds true for golf as a sport and that success is not just a matter of showing up on a particular day but also how you feel heading into a tournament with your own success. If I could quantify it, I would call it the momentum indicator of players or MI for short. It really holds true that if you have certain elements of your game that you are confident with, your confidence doesn't waver a whole lot week to week so much so as it does season to season. But lets get to who should really come out on top. These picks are organized based off fantasy salary and not off final standings or relative performance. (All fantasy salaries are based off of DraftKings). These players should be somewhere near or at the top 10 come the end of the week:

-Henrik Stenson ($12,100)
Top of the field in terms of salary and an absolute must pick if you are playing smaller leagues. His scrambling beyond 30 ft and in the rough is the best on tour as well as his GIR%. He can be a hit or miss though since there isn't a whole lot of room to work with around the greens on this course. Small leagues are best but if you're in larger guaranteed leagues then opt for someone with less risk and more value for your salary dollars.

-Kevin Na ($10,800)
He starts off my list because his recent top 10 performances as well as his solid average driving and above average scrambling/greens play should work to his advantage. He also hasn't gained a lot of strokes in terms of putting (.39 good for a tie for 39th on tour so far) so if he can continue his solid play in all other aspects of his game he shouldn't be too affected by the coin-flip success of putting.

(EDIT: This is also the reason I'm not picking Cameron Tringale; hitting these fairways and greens isn't as important as scrambling. Cameron managed to gain almost a full stroke putting in his recent outing so I don't think picking him would be the smart play here since putting can change with the greens.)

-Branden Grace ($10,500)
Tied for 5th in Scrambling for the 2014-2015 season and put up a fantastic performance at the Presidents Cup earlier this month. Although he has a tendency to hit the ball right when unwanted, I still see him learning from mistakes he's made earlier this year and managing a course with hazards like this very well. Look for him to post solid numbers as his driving distance is also fairly strong (300.3 yds good for T25)

-Ryan Moore ($9,900)
He's won this event twice in a row at this same golf course. He's everyone's favorite to win. Ranked #1 in putting from 3 feet so as long as he keeps it close he shouldn't be fooled by the slight undulations near the hole in later rounds of this tournament. He also may not be the best scrambler but in his last 2 events he has bested the field average for scrambling so I can safely give him a green light to perform pretty well on this course. Also, for the course being only 6900 yards, his slightly less than average driving distance (298.9 yds) should still hold up pretty well.

These are the top tier picks for this tournament. Just to roll out more analysis I will be posting this right now and delve into mid-lower tier picks as I get around to it. Please make sure to subscribe to my blog if you want to know right as the information comes out as I am kind of cutting it close to start time with my analysis!

EDIT:

I've changed the timings of these posts so that you see it in order of Top -> Mid -> Low tiers.

All picks are now finalized good luck to all!

Mid Tier Player Picks for CIMB Classic

Continued from the section below:

-Danny Lee ($9,200)
Led the 2014-2015 season in total birdies and finished out the season strong with multiple top 10s. He's been on the rise for the past six months but did waver a bit in his Presidents Cup showing. Hopefully he looks at that past performance and really works on some of the mistakes he made there. There isn't a whole lot of course data from this tournament but from Lee's own stats, he ranked number one in average approach from 125-150 yards and was 52nd on tour in scrambling (60.86%). He usually performs well in these above average field tournaments so don't hesitate to pick him up for your roster

-Tony Finau ($8,500)
He comes into this tournament having played the first two events of the year pretty solidly after putting up -7 and -10. He ranked top in the field for eagle scoring at the Shriner's Open and has managed to improve his scrambling significantly in those events to 63.64% and looks to continue his momentum and success heading into CIMB. With powerful drives and one of the lowest par 5 scoring averages, watch him capitalize on this wide-fairway course. The only thing I'd watch out for is his driving accuracy as his clubhead speed is one of the fastest on tour. Just be weary if you pick him because he could be in contention then put one in the water. That risk factor might steer me away in smaller leagues.

-Kevin Kisner ($8,100)
He finished T25 after the Shriners and has been putting up some of the best driving distances and accuracy percentages on tour. Hes been the spotlight of recent specials done by the PGA tour on playoffs and he's gone 0-3 in those playoffs which serves to me as a boost for him to be a sleeper underdog in this event. He ranked 4th in approaches from 125-150 yds in these last 2 tournaments and has gained 1.1 strokes tee-to-green which signifies his sharp course management. If he can play this just as well and hole out a couple putts he can definitely put up top 5 numbers (I'm calling it here!)

-Nick Watney ($7,900)
This is my one pick where none of this makes sense but he should perform really well at the CIMB. Coming into this tournament he's been on the rise finishing 11th at the Shriner's and he's definitely a momentum player. He isn't stellar at any one statistic as hes one of the worst in scrambling, but there's something about how he has been performing as of late that makes me wanna give him the thumbs up. Literally the one pick I'm going to say is a gut feeling with close to 0 analysis. I say close to because he's ranked 4th in holes per eagle so he has what it takes to put up some really solid holes on this course.

I'm going to cover all picks below this in price after a small break! Stay tuned


Low Tier Player Picks for CIMB Classic

Continued from bottom of the page:

-Russell Knox ($7,500)
He's ranked 3rd in scrambling overall and from 10-20 yards which is appropriate for a course like this where layups to stay away from hazards will be frequent. His slightly higher-than-average driving accuracy should make up for his low driving distance (291.3 yds) but that shouldn't be a deterrent on a short course like this. After missing the cut at the Frys.com Open he managed to bounce back at the Shriner's and place in the top 40. For value, I don't think another player in the field has a better shot at at least making the cut.

-Morgan Hoffman ($7,200)
He was my pick last week and for the sake of us all I hope he performs well this week. He was in solo second through the third day of action but dropped a lot of strokes in the final round. I see him taking this in stride and bouncing back. Went for 63.16% scrambling at Shriner's and with promising long drives and solid accuracy to boot, I think the pressure is off for him to give it his all and post a top 10 finish in this event.

-Jerry Kelly ($7,000)
One of the top scramblers on tour finishing 7th with 64.46% scrambling and improving that to 73% scrambling at 5th place through 2 events, he looks poised to at least have a top 30 finish at the CIMB. He did not play this event last year though which is my one quip with having him on my fantasy roster but sometimes not having expectations of the course can work to your advantage. He's also a very accurate driver (9th on tour last year, tied for 5th so far this year) which will be crucial on this course with the water in play.

Bottom of the bucket pick:

-John Peterson ($6,300)
Went 14th in scrambling last year with 63.47% and has a 67.52% driving accuracy off last year as well. He went first in driving accuracy percentage off his last start at the Frys.com Open but did not play the Shriner's probably due to the 78 he shot on the second day of Frys. Look for him to try and bounce back since the course itself doesn't play that far which bodes well for his well shorter-than-average driving (301 average for 2 rounds at Frys, 288 average in 2015). If he practiced his short game a bit more as well as his putting he could see remarkable improvement and do well here at CIMB.

That's all I've got for now. Some notables that I did not include on my list but might do something special as they have increased momentum coming into this tournament include  Daniel Summerhays ($7,800). Charles Howell III ($7,300), S.S.P. Chowrasia ($6,300) and Arie Irawan ($6,200).

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CIMB Classic Analysis: The Course

The Kuala Lampur G&CC West Course is hosting this year's CIMB Classic for the third year in a row. They have slight changes to the course especially at Hole 14 with a new tee-box giving players only a 280 yd shot to the green and allowing more eagle opportunities for the long and straight hitters (since 14 is flanked by water in the front and left side of the green facing the approach).

Notable stats about this course include:
(Rankings out of 52 tournament courses played in the 2014-2015 season)
-33rd in Birdie Average
-25th in Eagle Average
-37th in GIR%
-12th in Putts per round and One-putt %
-11th in Par 5 average score (meaning players have a harder time shooting low at these par 5's)
-12th in Scrambling % (Players have a tougher time getting up and down off the green here)

These important factors should play out and making picks around players who best fit this kind of play should work to your advantage.

Here's a couple of notes I wrote down about the course and its conditions:

-Weather is going to be really crappy for the next week and its predicted there will be thunderstorms rolling through the area. Might wanna go with someone who can really perform under these wet weather/humid conditions

-Wind is a nonfactor how ever bad the weather is

-There's water in play at 11/18 holes on this golf course with the 17th having a sneaky creek that cuts the fairway. Water is not in play on the 7th hole unless a wayward right tee shot is hit. Overall though, the water in play comes from the left and the right pretty evenly so there is no one way the course fits a certain ball flight.

-Heavy undulation on fairways and around this course. Any player that has a hard time with that is going to be challenged severely.


This is all for now. If anything comes up I will try to get edits out before the locking of rosters and start of play. Following this article will be a players article detailing my metrics of analysis and who I predict should be putting up great numbers at the CIMB Classic.

October 27, 2015

Fantasy Golf Picks for CIMB Classic

Now many of you might see the picks I made last week and think I have no clue what I'm talking about. Granted Morgan Hoffman did do pretty well last week until a terrible final round that set him back a couple strokes. But I really didn't get much of an opportunity to forewarn you I was even making picks and didn't go into any sort of depth as to who and why those picks are made. That was because I really did not do my research as this whole fantasy golf thing is new to me and I'm just trying to find success and realize some new form of analysis or technique to picking the best golfers week after week.

So for this week's action on the PGA Tour, I will be doing in-depth research and posting exactly what I'm going to be basing picks off of. I use DraftKings for fantasy salaries and with their cap at $50K, I should be able to give you a better understanding of who should fill gaps on top of your own picks to best round out your fantasy squads.

Stay tuned after the break. I will be updating this website over the next day and will post my picks for this CIMB Classic at Kuala Lampur Golf & CC West Course. I will also be doing an analysis of the course before I make the picks just in case you have information at your disposal which gives you an edge to who will perform given the course layout.


EDIT: So the start of the CIMB Classic, or at least the close of entries on DraftKings is 7:45PM Eastern Standard Time 10/28 so I should hopefully have these picks out by 12-1PM on 10/28.